This week's most important economic data was the PCE price index which is the gold standard of big picture inflation measurement. For those hoping to see rates drop, it was important for PCE to confirm the progress seen in the CPI data (the other major inflation index that came out 2 weeks ago). Spoiler alert: PCE confirmed the progress, but there are a few nuances. Perhaps most importantly, this week's PCE data covers the same time frame as the CPI data two weeks ago. In other words, it's not quite as awesome as 2 consecutive months of "mission accomplished" levels of inflation (which has now arguably been cemented for June), but it's nonetheless an important milestone in the path toward rate cuts. What exactly does "mission accomplished" mean? This simply refers to Fed's 2% annual inflation target, typically tracked via Core PCE which excludes more volatile food and energy prices. In order to hit 2%, monthly inflation readings need to average roughly .17%. This time around, it was .182%--definitely in the historical range of on-target inflation from before the pandemic. While the chart above makes it look like victory has been achieved, the inflation target is technically an annual thing, so we need to see more months in the target zone before the year over year number falls into line. Even then, the Fed has clearly stated that the annual change doesn't need to hit 2% as long as they're confident that it will. Prior to this week's data, the average Fed member has expressed an increasing amount of said confidence. It's not thought to be enough for a rate cut at next week's Fed meeting, but it's widely believed to result in a September rate cut, as long as the data doesn't do anything crazy between now and then.
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