Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Slip to Another Multi-Week Low Wed, 15 Oct 2025 20:26:00 GMT
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds are trading at their best levels since September 17th.  Of course there are different kinds of bonds, so we should specify that we're talking about the bonds that are specifically tied to mortgages (MBS or mortgage backed securities).  With this in mind, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates also at the lowest levels since September 17th.  The same was true yesterday, but today marked another incremental improvement.  Compared to yesterday, the bond market was actually fairly flat. So why did rates improve? It has to do with timing. Yesterday afternoon saw a decent rally in bonds (rallies = lower rates), but it was late enough in the day that many lenders didn't bother adjusting their mortgage rate offerings until this morning. Bottom line: mortgage lenders were getting caught up with yesterday's bond market rally.
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Mortgage Rates Maintain Last Week's Gains Tue, 14 Oct 2025 21:02:00 GMT
Last week ended with mortgage rates dropping to their best levels since September 17th. Over the weekend, the underlying bond market maintained the gains seen on Friday afternoon, thus allowing most lenders to set rates at least as low as they were at that time. The average lender is actually just slightly lower today, thus making this another new multi-week low. The counterpoint is that the range is still relatively narrow, which each day during this stretch (roughly 4 weeks) falling inside a range of 6.31 to 6.39.  As always, keep in mind that the MND index is an average top tier rate (i.e. high credit score, high downpayment, owner occupied, etc.). There were no major sources of volatility on the calendar today although a speech from Fed Chair Powell had the potential to cause some.  The event calendar will remain more silent during the government shutdown. Once it's over, volatility potential will increase.
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Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Fed Day Fri, 10 Oct 2025 19:16:00 GMT
Mortgage rates saw their biggest day-over-day decline of the past several weeks today in response to unexpected news regarding additional tariffs on China. Trump had previously been scheduled to meet with China's President Xi in 2 weeks, but  today said there was no reason to do so and that the administration is currently calculating a massive increase in Chinese tariffs.  Stocks and bonds immediately responded with the former moving lower and bonds rallying.  When bonds rally, interest rates move lower, all else equal. Mortgage lenders use mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to determine what rates they can offer.  When bonds move enough during the course of a day, mortgage lenders can reissue higher/lower mortgage rates.  Today's big mid-day rally is resulting in fairly widespread improvements. The net effect is an average 30yr fixed rate that is now as low as it's been since the September 17th Fed meeting. For context, today's rates are only a hair lower than October 3rd.
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Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher Thu, 09 Oct 2025 19:33:00 GMT
It's getting pretty tough to weave an interesting narrative on mortgage rates over the past 3 weeks. During that time, they just haven't changed that much for the average lender. Today was just another day in that regard. Bonds (which dictate day to day movement in rates) were slightly weaker than yesterday. This implies slightly higher mortgage rates and, indeed, today was no exception. But the important points are as follows: bond market movement has been relatively small on any given day winning and losing days have been in relatively equal supply Bottom line: today's losses leave the average rate easily inside the narrow prevailing range.
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Mortgage Rates Remain Steady Wed, 08 Oct 2025 19:00:00 GMT
Mortgage rates technically ticked a hair lower today, but it's more accurate to view them as being broadly sideways. Some lenders issued improvements yesterday afternoon.  Those lenders were closer to unchanged this morning.   As of this afternoon, several lenders have already issued slight rate increases due to weakness in the bond market.   Bonds dictate rates. Today, bonds took cues from two main events in the afternoon.  The first was a scheduled auction of 10yr Treasuries. Auction demand was slightly weaker than expected. This pushes Treasury yields higher and Treasury yields correlate with mortgage rates.  An hour later, the Fed released the minutes from the last Fed meeting 3 weeks ago. The minutes painted a slightly less rate-friendly picture than was in place at the time. This created a bit of extra weakness in the bond market, but only by a barely detectable amount. All told, the bonds that specifically pertain to mortgage rates were right at the same levels seen during the same time frame yesterday afternoon.  In general, that will equate to mortgage rates being at the same levels as well.
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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady in Tight Range Tue, 07 Oct 2025 19:57:00 GMT
Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow range for nearly 3 weeks with the last major move seen on September 17th and 18th following the Fed rate cut. Paradoxically but not surprisingly, rates actually moved higher after the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate. Contrary to popular belief, Fed comments and policy changes are not the biggest consideration for rates. That honor goes to big ticket economic data like the jobs report.  Case in point, the rate drop in early September after the jobs report was bigger than the jump in rates following the Fed. Moreover, the post-Fed jump was driven mainly by upbeat economic data the following morning. With the government in shutdown mode, we haven't had the same sort of heavy-hitting econ data--a fact that largely contributes to the recently narrow range. There was some non-government data today from the NY Fed that showed a weaker view of the jobs market among consumers, thus helping rates hold in line with yesterday's levels. Before that data, rates were set to open the day slightly higher.
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Mortgage Rates Start The Week Near Recent Highs Mon, 06 Oct 2025 20:23:00 GMT
Mortgage rates began the week right in line with their highest levels of the past 30 days.  This sounds a bit more dramatic than it is because the past 2.5 weeks have been very narrow and today's rates are merely at the upper edge of that range (i.e. not much different than the recent lows). There were no meaningful economic reports driving volatility in the underlying bond market (bonds dictate rates), but overseas developments caused broad bond market weakness overnight.  Weaker bonds = higher rates, all else equal. More extreme rate movement remains on hold until the government shutdown ends, thus allowing the publication of the big-ticket economic reports that have the biggest impacts on rates.
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Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Fed Day Fri, 03 Oct 2025 19:51:00 GMT
Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable.  But because the range has been so narrow over that time, and because rates were already at the lower boundary of that range yesterday, it technically resulted in the lowest average rate since Fed Day on September 17th. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker. This would typically result in mortgage rates moving higher. The catch is the timing of the weakness (and yesterday's strength).  Specifically, bonds improved yesterday afternoon but not enough for the average lender to change its rates for the day. Today's bond market is weaker compared to yesterday afternoon's levels, but stronger than yesterday morning's levels (when a majority of mortgage lenders published rates).  In other words, today's drop in rates had everything to do with yesterday afternoon's bond market gains.  All that needed to happen this morning was for bonds not to lose too much of that ground.
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Mortgage Rates Technically Lower, But Effectively Flat Thu, 02 Oct 2025 19:16:00 GMT
If we're splitting hairs, today's mortgage rates are half a hair lower than yesterday's, but the average borrower might not see a difference in a rate quote. Our 30yr fixed rate index fell by the smallest increment possible (.01%) and it hasn't been more than 0.03% away from that level for two weeks. With the Federal government closed, today's only potentially relevant economic data was not reported. It will be the same story tomorrow, which was originally scheduled to host the release of the jobs report. No other report comes close in terms of relevance to rates. Going without it means the market is largely flying blind until it is eventually released. This doesn't mean rates can't move between now and then--only that the overall capacity for volatility is lower until the data returns (likely when gov funding resumes). There are non-government reports that matter as well and tomorrow morning brings this week's best example with ISM's Services index.
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Mortgage Rates Remain Unchanged After Downbeat Employment Report Wed, 01 Oct 2025 19:16:00 GMT
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take cues from economic data. Employment-related data is particularly important. The monthly jobs report from the Department of Labor is in a league of its own in that regard, and while we won't get that this week due to the shutdown, this morning brought the release of a similar private sector report.  The ADP Employment report showed the job count dropping by 32k--well short of the forecast for a 50k increase.  In addition, the previous month's 54k was revised down to -3k. Bonds responded immediately and generally moved back in line with the stronger levels from yesterday morning. As such, mortgage rates were able to start the day right in line with yesterday's opening levels. The average 30yr fixed rate has been very flat for nearly 2 weeks now. The biggest risk/opportunity for a meaningful change would follow the eventual release of the jobs report, but that date is TBD for now.
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