Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Take Another Step Toward April Lows Mon, 30 Jun 2025 19:28:00 GMT
April 3rd and 4th saw the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates well into the "mid 6's."  Many lenders were able to quote 6.5% at the time.  Just a few days ago, we noted there was still a ways to go before breaking below those early April levels, but the past few days have taken us within striking distance.  The average lender is now only 0.07% higher than they were on April 4th and that's a gap that can be traversed in as little as one day under the right circumstances. If it is destined to be traversed in the near feature, it would likely be due to exceptional weakness in the forthcoming economic data--especially Thursday's big jobs report.  Conversely, if this week's economic data surprises to the upside, it would likely coincide with rates bouncing here and headline back into the recent range. And lastly, if this week's data doesn't cast a decisive vote in either direction, next week's inflation reports could easily break the tie. The most interesting aspect of today's movement was the movement itself.  It didn't happen due to any interesting data or news headlines.  Both stocks and bonds (which dictate rates) improved as traders moved portfolios into position for the end of the month/quarter.  This can cause market movement independent of economic data/news. 
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Mortgage Rates Not Too Far From 8 Month Lows Fri, 27 Jun 2025 17:16:00 GMT
Friday's mortgage rates ended up being right in line with Thursday's on average.  At 6.72%, the MND daily rate index is as low as it's been since early April when it hit 6.60%. If you're thinking that 6.72 doesn't sound much higher than 6.60, you're right!  Mortgage lenders tend to offer rates in 0.125% increments, so we're really only one notch away from those lows.  After that, we'd need to go all the way back to October to see anything lower. While the mortgage market can languish sideways for weeks without moving outside a 0.12 range, there are also more than a few examples of that much movement in a single day, provided the news is sufficiently inspiring. The catch is that the movement could occur in either direction.  In a general sense, the recent improvement has been a byproduct of slightly softer economic data and inflation. There are key reports that speak to those metrics over the next two weeks.  Rates have more room to fall if the data shows a continued softening, but could spike abruptly if employment surges or tariff-driven inflation actually materializes. 
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Mortgage Rate Winning Streak Continues Thu, 26 Jun 2025 19:02:00 GMT
After topping out on May 21st, the average day for mortgage rates has been a good one.  This has been especially true since June 6th with our 30yr fixed index moving down almost 0.25% through this afternoon. Today's gains contributed nicely with a drop of 0.07%. Normally, we'd point to the economic release calendar to help explain this sort of momentum.  There were numerous reports out this morning and several of them could be viewed as helpful for rates.  But when rates move lower in response to economic data, we tend to see at least some semblance of weakness in the stock market--even if only briefly--and that was nowhere to be found.  The implication is that the market is broadly shifting to expect a lower path for the Fed Funds Rate (something that would help both rates and stocks).  It's always good to remember that the greater number of days in a mortgage rate winning streak, the greater the odds of a bounce.  Sometimes that only means a single day moving modestly higher.  Other times, the rate market hits a short term floor and moves back up into its recent range for a while. There is absolutely no way to know which sort of bounce the next one will be, only that it grows slightly more likely with each passing day of victory.  Note: our winning streak is at 5 days currently, and we don't tend to call attention to these risks until we hit 8 days.  Some of the longest streaks go more than 10 days.
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Lowest Rates in Over 2 Months Wed, 25 Jun 2025 19:21:00 GMT
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate had already dipped to the lowest levels since May 1st at the start of the week.  Two additional days of modest improvement brings us to the lowest levels since April 4th as of today.   April 4th is probably a day that's worth remembering.  If rates take out that particular floor, it would signify some more serious momentum toward lower borrowing costs.  Reason being: April 4th's MND rate index was 6.6%--almost 0.20% lower than today's 6.79%.   Rates jumped abruptly after April 4th as the bond market reacted to a sharply stronger jobs report. They continued higher the following week after the tariff "pause."  Today's improvement is really more a reflection of yesterday afternoon's bond market strength.  As a reminder, lenders prefer to change their rates as infrequently as possible after setting them initially in the morning. If the bond market moves enough, they will issue mid day "reprices." Many lenders did so in response to yesterday's bond market gains, but in those scenarios, there tends to be a bit more left on the table. If the bond market holds reasonably steady overnight (as it did today), lenders can then pass along the additional improvement.
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Mortgage Rates Lowest Since April Tue, 24 Jun 2025 18:37:00 GMT
Yesterday saw mortgage rates fall to the best levels since early May.  Now, today, we'd have to go all the way back to the end of April to find anything lower.  Are the changes massive? Not by a long shot, but it sounds/looks that much better hear/read. This wasn't destined to be the case today.  The underlying bond market actually began the day in a stance that would have kept rates sideways or just a hair  higher.   But after the morning's economic data and Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony, bonds improved and the average mortgage lender was able to offer a mid day reprice. The data that mattered was the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index.  Specifically, a closely watched component of that index, the labor differential (a measurement of consumers who day jobs are plentiful versus those who say jobs are hard to get), pointed to the weakest labor market conditions since the easing of initial covid lockdowns. At the same time, Fed Chair Powell began answering questions before the House Financial Services Committee.  He struck a slightly softer tone on potential rate cuts today compared to the press conference at last week's Fed meeting and the bond market reacted accordingly. In general, when bonds improve enough during the day, mortgage lenders are increasingly able to execute a mid-day price change. 
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Mortgage Rates Lowest Since May 1st Mon, 23 Jun 2025 19:12:00 GMT
Mortgage rates ended the previous week roughly in line with the best levels since May 1st.  Today's modest improvement made it official.  Mortgage rates are primarily a function of trading levels in the bond market and bonds have had a few reasons to move at the start of the new week. There's a small case to be made that U.S. involvement in the conflict between Israel and Iran contributed to bond market strength and, thus, lower mortgage rates today.  Less debatable is the fact that Fed Vice Chair Bowman commented on the possibility of cutting rates at the July meeting. This echoes sentiments shared by Fed's Waller last week.  Unlike actual rate cuts (which often do little or nothing to help mortgage rates by the time they happen), changes in rate cut  expectations can impact longer-term rates in real time. In other words, by the time the Fed actually meets and cuts rates, the market has already had plenty of time to get in position for that due to comments from Fed speakers and economic data.
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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Fri, 20 Jun 2025 17:07:00 GMT
With Thursday being a federal holiday, banks (and more importantly, the underlying market for mortgage related bonds) were closed.  This means that lenders were not able to update mortgage rates.  It turns out that it wouldn't have mattered either way as the average lender has barely budged from Wednesday's levels.  But let's not miss an opportunity to deliver news that's technically good even if only just.  Over the past 3 business days, average rates have fallen 0.05%.  This keeps us close to the lowest levels seen since April 4th with top tier 30yr fixed scenarios at 6.86 on the MND daily rate index. Given some of the news headlines this week, it bears repeating that this week's Fed announcement has nothing to do with rates holding steady.  In fact, even if the Fed had cut rates (which was not seen as even a remote possibility by financial markets), mortgage rates could just as easily have moved higher.  
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Remarkable Absence of Mortgage Rate Volatility Wed, 18 Jun 2025 20:17:00 GMT
It happens, but it's rare. A Fed "dot plot" day has come and gone with mortgage rates almost perfectly unchanged from the previous day. This speaks to the level of indecision not only in the market, but also among Fed members. First off, what's a "dot plot day?"  The dot plot (or simply, "the dots") refers to a chart/table in the Fed's economic projections that shows where each Fed member sees the Fed Funds Rate at the end of the next few years.  These projections only come out on 4 of the 8 Fed days per year and they've grown to be a leading source of volatility for financial markets on those days. Since it was already a foregone conclusion that the Fed would not be cutting rates today, the market was forced to take its Fed-related cues from the dots and from Fed Chair Powell's press conference. The latter was just slightly negative for rates (i.e. it implied some upward pressure), but the dots did no harm.  After the dust settled, the underlying bond market was flat to slightly stronger on the day due to improvement that was in place several hours before the Fed announcement.  Markets are closed tomorrow for the Juneteenth holiday, but will reopen on Friday.
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Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower Ahead of Fed Day Tue, 17 Jun 2025 19:19:00 GMT
Mortgage rates continue operating in a narrow range with almost every day of the past two months falling between 6.8 and 7.0% for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario. Today's average rate fell 0.03 after moving up 0.06 since June 12th. This morning's most relevant potential influence--the Retail Sales report--turned out to have a limited impact this morning.  To be fair, when rates are as stable as they have been, there's no need to overanalyze their underlying motivations.  For those determined to do it anyway, today's best example may have been general market anxiety surrounding war in the Middle East. We have yet to see any huge market reaction in response to any of the geopolitical headlines, but there was a reaction that played out over the course of several hours that helped the bond market gain some ground. When bonds improve, mortgage lenders are able to offer lower rates.  Tomorrow's Fed announcement adds to the potential volatility in a more serious way.  This has nothing to do with "cut vs no cut" (there is zero chance of a rate cut tomorrow) and everything to do with the other information the Fed presents on announcement days. Of this info, it is the dot plot (a chart in the Fed's economic projection materials that show each Fed members' rate outlook over the next few years) that carries the most weight.  Caveat: POTENTIAL volatility is just that.  Sometimes Fed announcement days end up leaving rates fairly unchanged.  There's no way to now which way things will move ahead of time, only that the risk is higher than normal.
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Mortgage Rates Drift Slightly Higher to Start The Week Mon, 16 Jun 2025 19:53:00 GMT
While there's been no shortage of political and geopolitical headlines over the past 2 business days, there hasn't been much by way of inspiration for the bond market. Bonds (and, thus, rates) have moved nonetheless.   Perhaps it was the lower rates achieved last Thursday that prompted a pullback, or perhaps traders are pricing in some caution ahead of this week's data and Fed announcement. Either way, bonds lost ground on Friday and again today--both times with little by way of overt justification. Fortunately, the losses have been modest.  They leave the average rate very much in the middle of its range over the past 2 months. And it wouldn't be unfair to say rates have generally been sideways since last November in the bigger picture. Tomorrow's Retail Sales data is capable of causing volatility in either direction, depending on the outcome.  Then on Wednesday, we'll hear from the Fed.  While they will not be cutting rates at this meeting, they will be updating their rate outlook--something that frequently gets the market's attention.
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