Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Edge Slightly Higher From Long-Term Lows Mon, 25 Aug 2025 19:50:00 GMT
After last week's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell, rates fell to their lowest levels since October 3rd, 2024, narrowly surpassing the recent long-term low seen on August 13th. Powell tacitly suggested a stronger possibility of a September Fed rate cut due to growing concerns about the labor market. Now today, the market corrected mildly back in the other direction.  The average lender's conventional 30yr fixed rates moved back up ever-so-slightly (roughly 0.02%), but remain essentially in line with 10-month lows.  It always bears repeating that mortgage rates have much more in common with Fed rate EXPECTATIONS in the marketplace than with the Fed Funds Rate itself. Specifically, if expectations for rate cuts are increasing, mortgage rates tend to fall at the same time. The catch is that by the time the Fed ultimately holds its scheduled meeting and cuts rates, the market has long since priced that likelihood into prevailing levels. Thus, the actual Fed rate cut does little or nothing else to influence rates and the next wave of momentum takes cues from subsequent economic reports and developments.  Bottom line: the Fed Funds Rate is a battleship in a river whereas mortgage rates are far more nimble.
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Lowest Rates of The Year (Barely) After Powell Speech Fri, 22 Aug 2025 19:15:00 GMT
Heading into the week, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole Symposium was only event on the calendar that held much promise for motivating any major movement in mortgage rates. Not only did it deliver on that promise, but it did so in everyone's favorite direction. Powell didn't pivot too much from his last major speech on July 30th. But in light of the weak jobs numbers that came out 2 days later, he understandably called out a shift in the balance of risk between inflation and employment. In not so many words, like several other Fed members have pointed out in recent weeks, Powell essentially said the labor market is looking weak enough to entertain a rate cut in the near future, even as the inflation outlook remains somewhat uncertain.  The market began adjusting for this possibility on August 1st when the rocky jobs numbers came out. Today's speech was interpreted as additional validation of that move. With that, mortgage rates saw their biggest drop since August 1st, just barely beating out August 13th's lows to claim 2025's lowest spot. October 3rd, 2024 was the last time the average 30yr fixed rate was any lower. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Inch Higher Yet Again Thu, 21 Aug 2025 17:03:00 GMT
In a world (like this one) where mortgage rates are dictated by bond market movement and where bonds take cues from certain economic reports, weeks like this one can be frustrating or boring.  Until today, there haven't been any actionable economic reports to inspire a bond market reaction. Unfortunately, today's data was relatively unfriendly for rates, primarily due to inflation implications in two separate reports (Philly Fed Index and S&P PMIs). Bonds also care about comments from Fed speakers and there were headwinds on that front as well with the Fed's Beth Hammack saying the data don't currently support a rate cut at the September meeting. On a positive note, the damage to the bond market was minimal in the bigger picture. Thus, the impact on average mortgage rates was also minimal. While it's true that today's rates are the highest in nearly 3 weeks and 0.09% higher than the recent lows, it's also true that, apart from those 3 weeks, these are still the lowest rates since October 2024 and 0.13% lower than July 31st. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Barely Budge Wed, 20 Aug 2025 18:57:00 GMT
For the 11th straight business day, mortgage rates are very close to the levels from the end of the previous day.  Over the past week, however, most of these small day-to-day movements have been microscopically higher.  Today's is no exception. The net effect is that the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is up from 6.53% last Wednesday to 6.61% today.  Even that is a fairly minor move in the bigger picture, but it would certainly make for a weaker rate quote if Wednesdays happened to be your mortgage rate shopping days.   To put the overall change in specific, relatable terms, the average borrower would have to pay 0.4% in points to get the same rate quoted last Wednesday. This equates to $400 for every $100k borrowed.  Today's modestly higher rates were in place before the afternoon release of the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting (3 weeks ago). The minutes didn't offer any major new revelations beyond those already seen in recent weeks from individual Fed speeches. 
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Mortgage Rates Little Changed From Monday Tue, 19 Aug 2025 19:32:00 GMT
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds, and bonds have some seasonality to them.  This doesn't necessarily mean there's a reliable seasonal pattern for the direction of rate movement.  Rather, it means that several weeks in August tend to be fairly forgettable in terms of excitement, volatility, and methodical movement.  The 2 most recent weeks arguably fit that bill.  Bonds (and, thus, rates) are still operating in the range seen in the 24 hours following the August 1st jobs report.  Mortgage rates have been in an even narrower range than the broader bond market.  For example, 10yr Treasury yields (often viewed as a benchmark for mortgage rate movement) are well over halfway back up to the levels seen before the jobs report.  Mortgage rates, meanwhile, aren't even a quarter of the way back. Specifically, 10yr yields were around 4.40% and fell to around 4.20% after the jobs report.  They're now back up to 4.30% and were as high as 4.35% yesterday.   Mortgage rates were 6.75% before the jobs report and fell as low as 6.53% afterward.  They're at 6.59% today (top tier scenario, average). There have been no major influences for rates so far this week and there aren't any major threats on the calendar of scheduled events until Friday at the earliest.  This doesn't mean rates can't move until then, only that they are not going to be moving in response to scheduled economic data.
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Rates Trickle to Another Higher Low Mon, 18 Aug 2025 19:39:00 GMT
Mortgage rates are as high as they've been on almost any other day this month.  You'd have to go back to August 1st to see anything higher.  On the other hand, rates are still noticeably lower than almost any other day of the past 10 months.  It's really only the past 2 weeks that have been any better and the gap between recent highs and lows is very small. In other words, rates have been holding a narrow range near 10 month lows in August.  There's been a modicum of upward drift over the past few days, but no material developments.  This week will be fairly light in terms of sources of potential volatility. Once upon a time, the market may have worried about the impact from the Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium. While Fed Chair Powell could say something that causes a reaction in rates at the end of the week, it wouldn't be on the same scale as something like a surprising result in the jobs report or inflation data.
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Highest Rates This Week, But Close Enough to Long Term Lows Fri, 15 Aug 2025 18:17:00 GMT
Friday proved to be the weakest day of the week for the underlying bond market and, thus, the highest day of the week for mortgage rates. Retail sales data was generally stronger than expected, especially when considering revisions and when focusing on the "core" numbers that strip out more volatile categories such as autos/fuel and building materials. Bonds (which underlie rates) didn't move too much at first, but began losing ground amid the tougher Friday afternoon trading conditions. When bonds lose ground, it implies upward pressure on rates. Several lenders reissued slightly higher rates in the afternoon. This technically made Friday the highest mortgage rate day of the week. That said, these rates are still much closer to long term lows than most of the past 10 months. In fact, apart from the past 9 business days, today's rates would still be the lowest since early October 2024. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Mostly Steady Despite Some Market Volatility Thu, 14 Aug 2025 17:08:00 GMT
Mortgage rates hit fresh long term lows yesterday with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at the best levels since October 3rd, 2024.  There wasn't anything exceptional about the movement yesterday or on any other day in the past week.  Rather, it was the jobs report at the beginning of the month that accounted for a 2-day rally.  Rates have been holding near longer-term lows with little fanfare ever since. Because mortgage rates are based on bonds, the absence of fanfare reflects an absence of volatility in the underlying bond market. Today presented the biggest threat to that calm trend since the August 1st jobs report. Unlike the jobs report, today's inflation data caused a volatile reaction in an unfriendly direction. In other words, the economic data put upward pressure on rates. The catch is that rates were set to start the day at even lower levels before the data came out.  The net effect is another day of fairly minimal change.
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Mortgage Rates Hit New 10 Month Lows Wed, 13 Aug 2025 17:34:00 GMT
October 3rd, 2024 continues to be the day to beat when it comes to mortgage rates hanging out at 10 month lows. Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate matched October 4th levels for the first time since then, just barely edging out last week's lowest levels. Hitting the next milestone will be a much bigger challenge.  The gap between October 3rd and 4th was about as big as they come with a single day move of more than 0.25%.  To put that in perspective, the 5 months leading up to August didn't see a range much larger than 0.25%. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] But this comparison to a past milestone is much ado about nothing. Rates are as low as they've been in a long time and refi demand was already surging before the latest drop.  If economic data weakens and if inflation stays manageable, we could see further improvement, and every little bit helps. As for today's specific improvement, it wasn't the product of any major new development. Markets continued a delayed reaction to yesterday's Consumer Price Index (inflation data).  Notably, rates moved lower in concert with Fed rate cut expectations.  For all the time we spend pushing back on the belief that the Fed dictates mortgage rates, this is the one time that there's a sort of exception.   Specifically, mortgage rates do indeed tend to move the same direction as Fed rate EXPECTATIONS .  This is mostly because the two share many common motivations and NOT because mortgage rates are waiting for a change in the actual Fed Funds Rate.  A prime example was seen in late 2024 when mortgage rates hit long term lows only to begin moving higher when the Fed finally cut rates.
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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Key Inflation Report Tue, 12 Aug 2025 19:50:00 GMT
Pundits, politicians, and everyone else can continue to assume that mortgage rates will respond to changes to the Fed Funds Rate. Meanwhile the bonds that actually dictate mortgage pricing will continue responding to the most important economic reports. The two biggest examples are the monthly jobs report and today's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). To be fair to those who are overly-focused on the Fed, there is a correlation between this data and the Fed's decision-making process.  In other words, today's rates were at risk of moving higher or lower for the same reasons that the Fed might be more or less likely to cut rates in September.  The Fed attempts to balance unemployment and inflation, in not so many words. Today's CPI showed that inflation has yet to fall decisively enough to guarantee a rate cut. On the other hand, it didn't rise enough to take a rate cut off the table. In short, CPI was mixed. Some components showed tariff impacts and a costlier services sector. Other components showed ongoing softening in major categories such as housing-related expenses. The odds of a Fed rate cut actually improved for September. Shorter-term bonds also improved (no surprise, as they are highly correlated with Fed rate expectations).  But longer-term bonds (which includes the bonds that dictate mortgage rates) held steady.  When this is the case, mortgage rates will almost always be roughly unchanged on the day.
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